National Security

Did you see it? Iranian Revolutionary Guard speed boats on Tuesday, January 8 raced around and taunted U.S. Naval vessels within International waters in the Strait of Hormuz. During the video the exchange of radio communication between the U.S. and Iranians can be heard proclaiming, "I am coming to you…You will explode after few minutes." President Bush described it as a "provocative act."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry described it as an "ordinary occurrence" and accused the U.S. of doctoring the video. Iran's state run television said "The footage released by the U.S. Navy was compiled using file pictures and the audio has been fabricated." American patience and discipline saved these misguided Iranians from being blown into fish food -- and also from escalating war in the Middle East -- which may be exactly what Iran is after.

On October 12, 2000 a Navy guided missile destroyer, the USS Cole, was refueling offshore in Aden harbor, Yemen, southwest across the Arabian peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz. A small boat with two men aboard approached the Cole and exploded. The blast tore open the side of the ship, killing 17 and injuring 39. The attack occurred eleven months prior to the 9/11 attacks, and is believed to be linked to Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. The investigation of the Cole attack indicated breaches in the ship's security, and also affirmed the expanding suicide bombing strategies of Islamic jihadists.

Given the history of the Cole incident, as well as the 9/11 attacks and subsequent war against terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and globally, the restraint of the Navy is most commendable. But, the warning signals are ominous.

Walter Mead writing of the recent Strait of Hormuz situation for the Wall Street Journal noted a litany of wars and conflicts instigated at sea going back to Jefferson in 1801 with the Barbary Pirates' attacks on U.S. maritime commerce in the Mediterranean. In the 20^th century German attacks on our ships pushed America into World War I, and the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor into World War II. Johnson escalated the Vietnam War following the Gulf of Tonkin incident. Ford, Reagan, and Clinton all had maritime situations to deal with as well, according to Mead.

The 21^st century global economy -- and thus political stability -- depends on energy derived largely from petroleum reserves. Presently there is the first ever "global energy crisis" that is demand driven, as opposed to supply initiated. In the past, political conflict and regional war restricted supply of oil that temporarily caused a price spike. Once some semblance of stability returned, however, prices always stabilized. Increased dependence on foreign energy sources by the U.S. and a global economy that needs energy to expand, has created the current demand driven situation. India and China account for a third of the world's population with a combined 2.4 billion people. The thirst for energy in those two expanding economies alone explains a good deal of the current problem.

According to the Energy Information Administration about half of the global production of oil is transported on the seas. Of that portion, nearly 40% of all seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz (17 million barrels/day).

According to Mead, "The Straits of Hormuz…are exceptionally sensitive. The ability of the U.S. to protect the free flow of oil through these waters is absolutely vital to the global economy." The Iranians understand this, as well. He who controls passage through the Persian Gulf holds much of the world in the palm of his hand. If the thought of $3.00/gallon gas and $100/barrel crude oil creates economic quivers, imagine the impact if suddenly global supply were decreased by 20%?

If anything is certain, it is that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Iranian mullahs covet power and they have fanatical disdain for the "infidels." The collaboration of the Revolutionary Guard with Islamic terrorist groups is well established. The United States Senate adopted the Lieberman-Kyl Amendment in September, 2007 by a vote of 76-22 designating the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization for their training and support of terrorist activities against our troops in Iraq.

Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institute, a former CIA analyst, says a select group of the Guard known as the Quds "deployed to Lebanon in 1982, where it helped in the genesis of Hezbollah. Another unit was sent to Bosnia to back Bosnian Muslims in their civil war in the early- and mid-1990s. More recently, some experts say, the Quds Force has shipped weapons to Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and is also supplying munitions to the Taliban in Afghanistan and Shiite militias in Iraq."

Riedel and other analysts believe that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as it is formally known, has expanded their influence substantially in Iran and are now effectively the power behind the mouthpiece, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The IRGC is no friend to America or to the free-market economies of the world.

Casually dismissing the seriousness of any provocation from the IRGC is foreign policy folly and national security stupidity.

To make matters far worse, in December Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had agreed to supply 80 tons of uranium for the nuclear reactor at the Iranian port city of Bushehr.

So why, you might say, did the NIE announce that Iran had discontinued their nuclear weapons program in 2003? Are we really supposed to believe that the IRGC and the powers that be in Iran are going use that uranium only to produce energy (as if Iran had no other energy source)?

Time named Putin as their 2007 Person of the Year in part because of the economic improvements that have occurred in a still struggling Russia. Capitalism aside, Putin is certainly willing to make a profit wherever and however he can. If his dealings with Iran goad the Americans and strengthen his relationships in the Middle East, then it is an even better deal for him.

Previous Time honorees included Adolph Hitler (1938), Joseph Stalin (1939 and 1942), and Nikita Krushchev (1957). One would hope that Putin's coziness with Iran doesn't earn him inclusion to this infamous hall of shame.

NIE reports and Vladimir Putin's commercial transactions notwithstanding, not everyone is comfortable with the Iranians. Former Director of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Military Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Aharon Ze'evi Farkash is among those with very grave concern.

In a special intelligence briefing delivered January 1, 2008 to the Institute for Contemporary Affairs in Jerusalem, Gen. Farkash states, "In my view, any distinction between Iranian military and civilian nuclear programs is artificial. The enrichment of uranium, critical to both civilian and military uses, is continuing. Once, they have enough enriched uranium, they will be 3-6 months away from building a nuclear bomb if they decide to do so."

Farkash also describes the harsh reality of the world as it currently exists. The NIE, which promoted a false sense of security, quickly led to the announcement of the finalization of the uranium sale by Putin. China had given indications of support for further economic sanctions against Iran, but reversed coarse announcing a $2.3 billion "energy" deal within weeks after release of the NIE. "The NIE has sent a signal to Tehran that the danger of external sanctions has ended," he said.

In his capacity as IDF Intelligence Director, Farkash briefed European officials on the increasing nuclear capabilities of the Iranians. Europeans believe, "if Iran did achieve a nuclear military capability, the U.S. and Israel would solve the problem." Furthermore, he concludes, "I believe this remains their attitude today."

"The NIE has clearly weakened international support for tougher sanctions against Iran and has weakened Turkey and the moderate Sunni countries in the region that were seeking to build a coalition against Iran," in the opinion of Gen. Farkash.

Americans know that we have the might to take on just about any battle, but we struggle to support any fight that goes on for very long. That bit of our nature has been reaffirmed by the free-fall from a national unity of purpose following the 9/11 attacks to increasing war-weariness in the country today.

The Islamic jihadists understand that much about our nature, too. And they are willing to wait us out until we weaken and expose our vulnerabilities.

It may not be what we would like to do, and it may not be fair that the vast majority of the responsibility is upon us, but if peace and stability do have any chance in this world, it is up to America to be vigilant in preventing those that would make war from having their way.